Burnin' For You

Yes, I'm going to talk about football and no, I'm not going to talk about Brett Favre.

The Falcons made their first off-season move that didn't look like it was orchestrated by the villain in a sports comedy this week, picking up Michael Turner for six years for millions of dollars. This move is interesting for any Falcons fans with souls that have not been completely crushed by the events of the past year and a half. Here's what we can safely assume now:

1. No Run DMC.

It's a tragic realization, since McFadden seems like the surest thing and most exciting player in this draft, and will likely still be there when the Falcons make the third pick in the draft. As disappointing as it is now, at least now we can resign ourselves to this fact instead of watching the draft and having the wind knocked out of us when we still passed on him.

2. Said draft pick is tradeable.

The Dolphins have Ronnie Brown and the Rams have Stephen Jackson. Those are the only two teams. Both are elite running backs, and that means that neither team is likely to take McFadden. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have made their desire for DMC widely known. Would they be stupid enough to repeat the Hershel Walker and Ricky Williams debacles by throwing in all their chips for a blue chip back? Especially when he could possibly be had a few picks later for much cheaper? God I hope so.

(For the record, if we don't make a franchise-resurrection trade for a slew of picks, the selection has to be Jake Long to solidify our left tackle spot for a decade or so).

3. Arthur Blank is still alive.

I was beginning to worry that he had gone incognito in an attempt to infiltrate Leavenworth Federal Penitentiary and heroically wheel his BFF to safety, secretly putting Billy Knight in charge to commit roster genocide. When DeAngelo Hall inevitably gets traded, completely cleansing our roster of Vick's crew and anyone who has been legally able to drink for more than two years, it'd be nice to remember that somewhere back there is an owner who legitimately cares about football in Atlanta.

The rest is completely speculative. Now, as much as I wanted Run DMC, I'm pretty excited about Michael "The Burner" Turner. I loved him when we was tearing up major conference foes at Northern Illinois, I loved him when I imported him into Madden and made him a star, and I hated him when I watched him bust for 45 yard gains for the Chargers, thinking he was LaDainian Tomlinson and thus on my fantasy team the whole time. Most scouts and fans think he could be a great feature back, and the combo of The Burner and Norwoodmania means the Falcons have exactly one position with lots of potential.

One thing concerns me, though. Of all the various positions in all the major sports, running back has the single shortest productive shelf life (followed by Major League catcher or closer and NBA point guard). Every time the touch the ball, there is an 80% chance that they are going to collide with two 250 pound linebackers or have a 300 pound lineman fall on them. Honestly, a legitimate running back seems to have an average career span of 6 years, with a standard deviation of 2 years. Now, Turner has been in the league for four years. However, his years with the Chargers were spent as a backup, so we can count those as roughly half years. Here's where it gets problematic. Roddy White is the only other (arguably) above-average NFL player on the Falcons offense at this point. That means Turner will be carrying any offense the Falcons can muster next year. Defenses will zero in on him, plan around him, and stack the line against him. Call it the Jamal Lewis treatment. So, we can probably count each year he starts for the Falcons as at or over two NFL years.

Now keep in mind that the Falcons are at the very least two years away from respectability, and it will be three-four years before we can realistically expect to contend for anything more than a wild-card loss. This team is in absolute disarray. Which means that by the time the rest of this youth movement management is orchestrating begins to mature into a real team, Turner will be at around 8 NFL years of beatings. In essence, for the next few seasons we will be building our team around a player who may very well be worn and torn into a shell of his former self by the time that rebuilding project comes into fruition.

Obviously, it's not a sure thing that he will break down by the time we actually need him. Of course, it's no sure thing that he will be good feature back in the first place. But we do know that after 6-8 years, or 30 years of age, NFL running backs, on average, are just never the same. I (perhaps a bit unrealistically) expect Turner to be a Pro-Bowl caliber back. I just hope he'll be making carries that mean something before its too late.